MLB matchup leans
Blue JaysL111:10 AMHOU -169AstrosW1
11:10 AM · Daikin Park

TOR's bats grade well below average against Brown; HOU's grade above average against Taillon. That is a strong lean to HOU.

DK ML · TOR
+159 ← -105 open
DK ML · HOU
-169 ← -115 open
Total
o/u 8
Implied HOU (devig)
61.9%
Model vs market
Model agrees with the market: HOU favored. When the model leans the home favorite: 110-75 in the ledger.
TOR starter → HOU bats
Jameson TaillonRHPbelow avg
faces the HOU lineup · 7R/2L · 2 plt-adv · model 4.5 IP + bullpen
wOBA
K − BB%
wOBA agn
.357
lg .316
K-BB%
12.6
lg 13.2
xERA
5.86
season 5.92
StandoutsAlvarezPeña
▶HOU lineupprojectedwOBA .327
1Yordan AlvarezLDH.450
2Isaac ParedesR3B.337
3Christian WalkerR1B.334
4Cam SmithRRF.292
5Jose AltuveR2B.305
6Daulton VarshoLCF.301
7Jeremy PeñaRSS.387
8Yainer DiazRC.308
9Christian VázquezRC.266
HOU starter → TOR bats
Hunter BrownRHPsolid
faces the TOR lineup · 5R/3L/1S · 4 plt-adv · model 5.4 IP + bullpen
wOBA
K − BB%
wOBA agn
.304
lg .316
K-BB%
11.2
lg 13.2
xERA
3.72
season 3.42
▶TOR lineupprojectedwOBA .308
1Vladimir Guerrero Jr.R1B.305
2Kazuma OkamotoR3B.325
3Ernie ClementR2B.313
4George SpringerRDH.322
5Andrés GiménezLSS.274
6Nathan LukesLRF.310
7Jesús SánchezLRF.318
8Brandon ValenzuelaSC.317
9Myles StrawRRF.279
DodgersL511:20 AMCHC -113CubsW2
11:20 AM · Wrigley Field

LAD's bats grade about average against Imanaga; CHC's grade above average against Lauer. That is a slight lean to CHC.

DK ML · LAD
+106 ← +101 open
DK ML · CHC
-113 ← -121 open
Total
o/u 9.5
Implied CHC (devig)
52.2%
Model vs market
Model agrees with the market: CHC favored. When the model leans the home favorite: 110-75 in the ledger.
LAD starter → CHC bats
Eric LauerLHPbelow avg
faces the CHC lineup · 5R/3L/1S · 6 plt-adv · model 5.6 IP + bullpen
wOBA
K − BB%
wOBA agn
.321
lg .316
K-BB%
7.4
lg 13.2
xERA
4.71
season 6.69
StandoutsCrow-ArmstrongSuzuki
▶CHC lineupprojectedwOBA .335
1Alex BregmanR3B.319
2Michael BuschL1B.334
3Pete Crow-ArmstrongLCF.393
4Nico HoernerR2B.303
5Ian HappSLF.326
6Seiya SuzukiRRF.368
7Dansby SwansonRSS.309
8Carson KellyRC.327
9Michael ConfortoLDH.338
CHC starter → LAD bats
Shota ImanagaLHPsolid
faces the LAD lineup · 4R/5L · 4 plt-adv · model 5.8 IP + bullpen
wOBA
K − BB%
wOBA agn
.304
lg .316
K-BB%
17.6
lg 13.2
xERA
3.72
season 3.67
StandoutsOhtaniFreemanMuncy
▶LAD lineupprojectedwOBA .331
1Andy PagesRCF.341
2Freddie FreemanL1B.379
3Shohei OhtaniLTWP.393
4Kyle TuckerLRF.323
5Max MuncyL3B.361
6Mookie BettsRSS.291
7Teoscar HernándezRLF.323
8Miguel RojasR2B.311
9Hunter FeducciaLC.290
GiantsL111:35 AMTEX -170RangersW1
11:35 AM · Globe Life Field

SF's bats grade below average against Bradford; TEX's grade above average against Whisenhunt. That is a clear lean to TEX.

DK ML · SF
+160 ← +149 open
DK ML · TEX
-170 ← -181 open
Total
o/u 8.5
Implied TEX (devig)
62.1%
Model vs market
Model agrees with the market: TEX favored. When the model leans the home favorite: 110-75 in the ledger.
SF starter → TEX bats
Carson WhisenhuntLHPbelow avg
faces the TEX lineup · 3R/6L · 3 plt-adv · model 4.8 IP + bullpen
wOBA
K − BB%
wOBA agn
.345
lg .316
K-BB%
4.6
lg 13.2
xERA
7.64
season 6.63
StandoutsPedersonDuran
▶TEX lineupprojectedwOBA .316
1Brandon NimmoLRF.338
2Jake BurgerR1B.313
3Ezequiel DuranRSS.342
4Joc PedersonLDH.360
5Evan CarterLCF.297
6Wyatt LangfordRLF.345
7Corey SeagerLSS.303
8Alejandro OsunaLLF.300
9Nicky LopezL2B.285
TEX starter → SF bats
Cody BradfordLHPsolid
faces the SF lineup · 3R/6L · 3 plt-adv · model 5.2 IP + bullpen
wOBA
K − BB%
wOBA agn
.316
lg .316
K-BB%
—
lg 13.2
xERA
—
StandoutsLeeEldridge
▶SF lineupprojectedwOBA .308
1Rafael DeversL1B.340
2Willy AdamesRSS.301
3Jung Hoo LeeLRF.344
4Bryce EldridgeLDH.348
5Drew GilbertLCF.305
6Daniel SusacRC.305
7Drew CavanaughLC.285
8Christian KossR2B.188
9Grant McCrayLCF.258
RaysW212:10 PMTB -158RockiesL2
12:10 PM · Coors Field

TB's bats grade well above average against Sugano; COL's grade about average against Martinez. That is a strong lean to TB.

DK ML · TB
-158 ← -156 open
DK ML · COL
+148 ← +129 open
Total
o/u 11.5
Implied COL (devig)
39.7%
Model vs market
Model agrees with the market: TB favored. When the model leans the away favorite: 61-41 in the ledger.
TB starter → COL bats
Nick MartinezRHPsolid
faces the COL lineup · 4R/4L/1S · 5 plt-adv · model 5.8 IP + bullpen
wOBA
K − BB%
wOBA agn
.299
lg .316
K-BB%
9.9
lg 13.2
xERA
4.58
season 2.77
StandoutsGoodmanRumfieldMoniak
▶COL lineupprojectedwOBA .332
1TJ RumfieldL1B.368
2Hunter GoodmanRC.369
3Ezequiel TovarRSS.256
4Willi CastroS2B.335
5Jake McCarthyLCF.353
6Kyle KarrosR3B.350
7Troy JohnstonLRF.326
8Mickey MoniakLLF.375
9Tyler FreemanRRF.291
COL starter → TB bats
Tomoyuki SuganoRHPbelow avg
faces the TB lineup · 3R/5L/1S · 6 plt-adv · model 5.7 IP + bullpen
wOBA
K − BB%
wOBA agn
.340
lg .316
K-BB%
7.9
lg 13.2
xERA
7.22
season 4.47
StandoutsCamineroDíazAranda
▶TB lineupprojectedwOBA .326
1Junior CamineroR3B.392
2Jonathan ArandaL1B.355
3Yandy DíazRDH.362
4Chandler SimpsonLLF.304
5Liam HicksLC.353
6Cedric MullinsLCF.285
7Taylor WallsSSS.272
8Ben WilliamsonR2B.290
9Richie PalaciosL2B.304
AngelsL13:35 PMBAL -148OriolesW1
3:35 PM · Oriole Park at Camden Yards

LAA's bats grade below average against Rogers; BAL's grade well below average against Detmers. That is a clear lean to LAA.

DK ML · LAA
+139 ← +119 open
DK ML · BAL
-148 ← -143 open
Total
o/u 8.5
Implied BAL (devig)
58.8%
Model vs market · disagree
Model leans the underdog LAA (+139) against the market's BAL. When the model leans the away underdog: 49-50 in the ledger.
LAA starter → BAL bats
Reid DetmersLHPelite
faces the BAL lineup · 5R/3L/1S · 6 plt-adv · model 5.3 IP + bullpen
wOBA
K − BB%
wOBA agn
.287
lg .316
K-BB%
20.9
lg 13.2
xERA
3.38
season 4.03
StandoutsAlonso
▶BAL lineupprojectedwOBA .306
1Gunnar HendersonLSS.299
2Pete AlonsoR1B.351
3Leody TaverasSCF.286
4Coby MayoR3B.297
5Colton CowserLCF.292
6Jeremiah JacksonR2B.284
7Tyler O'NeillRRF.304
8Carlos NarváezRC.244
9Dylan BeaversLRF.304
BAL starter → LAA bats
Trevor RogersLHPsolid
faces the LAA lineup · 5R/4L · 5 plt-adv · model 5.8 IP + bullpen
wOBA
K − BB%
wOBA agn
.309
lg .316
K-BB%
12.3
lg 13.2
xERA
3.91
season 4.27
StandoutsTrout
▶LAA lineupprojectedwOBA .318
1Zach NetoRSS.325
2Mike TroutRCF.366
3Nolan SchanuelL1B.327
4Oswald PerazaR2B.286
5Vaughn GrissomR2B.323
6Josh LoweLLF.268
7Moisés BallesterosLC.301
8Wade MecklerLLF.353
9Denzer GuzmanR3B.286
NationalsL73:40 PMPHI -163PhilliesW4
3:40 PM · Citizens Bank Park

WSH's bats grade above average against Painter; PHI's grade above average against Irvin. That is a slight lean to WSH.

DK ML · WSH
+153 ← +135 open
DK ML · PHI
-163 ← -163 open
Total
o/u 9.5
Implied PHI (devig)
61.1%
Model vs market · disagree
Model leans the underdog WSH (+153) against the market's PHI. When the model leans the away underdog: 49-50 in the ledger.
WSH starter → PHI bats
Jake IrvinRHPbelow avg
faces the PHI lineup · 3R/6L · 6 plt-adv · model 4.5 IP + bullpen
wOBA
K − BB%
wOBA agn
.323
lg .316
K-BB%
14.1
lg 13.2
xERA
5.56
season 5.56
StandoutsSchwarberHarperArraez
▶PHI lineupprojectedwOBA .326
1Trea TurnerRSS.308
2Bryce HarperL1B.369
3Kyle SchwarberLDH.380
4Luis ArraezL2B.347
5Alec BohmR3B.285
6Brandon MarshLLF.330
7Bryson StottL2B.320
8Justin CrawfordLCF.292
9J.T. RealmutoRC.295
PHI starter → WSH bats
Andrew PainterRHPbelow avg
faces the WSH lineup · 3R/4L/2S · 6 plt-adv · model 4.6 IP + bullpen
wOBA
K − BB%
wOBA agn
.365
lg .316
K-BB%
9.9
lg 13.2
xERA
5.24
season 6.72
StandoutsAbrams
▶WSH lineupprojectedwOBA .313
1CJ AbramsLSS.388
2Daylen LileLLF.310
3Nasim NuñezS2B.277
4Jacob YoungRCF.299
5Dylan CrewsRRF.303
6Keibert RuizSC.316
7Jorbit VivasL3B.294
8José TenaLDH.308
9Brady HouseR3B.296
MetsW13:40 PMNYM -107GuardiansL1
3:40 PM · Progressive Field

NYM's bats grade well below average against Bibee; CLE's grade about average against Scott. That is a clear lean to CLE.

DK ML · NYM
-107 ← -121 open
DK ML · CLE
+101 ← +101 open
Total
o/u 8.5
Implied CLE (devig)
49.0%
Model vs market · disagree
Model leans the underdog CLE (+101) against the market's NYM. When the model leans the home underdog: 6-11 in the ledger.
NYM starter → CLE bats
Christian ScottRHPsolid
faces the CLE lineup · 2R/4L/3S · 7 plt-adv · model 4.8 IP + bullpen
wOBA
K − BB%
wOBA agn
.302
lg .316
K-BB%
18.6
lg 13.2
xERA
3.75
season 2.99
StandoutsDeLauterLowe
▶CLE lineupprojectedwOBA .319
1Jo AdellRRF.302
2Brayan RocchioSSS.313
3Steven KwanLLF.314
4Chase DeLauterLRF.349
5José RamírezS3B.313
6Travis BazzanaL2B.327
7Rhys HoskinsR1B.307
8Nathaniel LoweLDH.353
9Angel MartínezSLF.294
CLE starter → NYM bats
Tanner BibeeRHPsolid
faces the NYM lineup · 4R/4L/1S · 5 plt-adv · model 5.9 IP + bullpen
wOBA
K − BB%
wOBA agn
.303
lg .316
K-BB%
11.5
lg 13.2
xERA
4.43
season 3.81
▶NYM lineupprojectedwOBA .308
1Bo BichetteR3B.294
2Carson BengeLRF.320
3Marcus SemienR2B.272
4Brett BatyL3B.274
5A.J. EwingLCF.324
6Francisco AlvarezRC.340
7Francisco LindorSSS.324
8Luis TorrensRC.284
9Jared YoungL1B.326
AthleticsL63:40 PMCIN -129RedsW2
3:40 PM · Great American Ball Park

ATH's bats grade about average against Lowder; CIN's grade well above average against Lopez. That is a clear lean to CIN.

DK ML · ATH
+121 ← +125 open
DK ML · CIN
-129 ← -151 open
Total
o/u 9.5
Implied CIN (devig)
55.5%
Model vs market
Model agrees with the market: CIN favored. When the model leans the home favorite: 110-75 in the ledger.
ATH starter → CIN bats
Jacob LopezLHPbelow avg
faces the CIN lineup · 6R/2L/1S · 7 plt-adv · model 3.9 IP + bullpen
wOBA
K − BB%
wOBA agn
.351
lg .316
K-BB%
5.8
lg 13.2
xERA
3.69
season 5.79
StandoutsCruzStewartBleday
▶CIN lineupprojectedwOBA .321
1Sal StewartR1B.349
2Elly De La CruzSSS.370
3JJ BledayLLF.351
4Matt McLainR2B.278
5Eugenio SuárezRDH.291
6Tyler StephensonRC.330
7TJ FriedlLCF.232
8Dane MyersRCF.334
9Noelvi MarteRRF.254
CIN starter → ATH bats
Rhett LowderRHPbelow avg
faces the ATH lineup · 3R/5L/1S · 6 plt-adv · model 4.7 IP + bullpen
wOBA
K − BB%
wOBA agn
.335
lg .316
K-BB%
8.8
lg 13.2
xERA
5.27
season 5.42
StandoutsSoderstrom
▶ATH lineupprojectedwOBA .315
1Tyler SoderstromLLF.345
2Jeff McNeilL2B.288
3Lawrence ButlerLRF.283
4Jacob WilsonRSS.308
5Carlos CortesLRF.329
6Henry BolteRCF.316
7Jonah HeimSC.307
8Max MuncyR3B.298
9Donovan WaltonL2B.360
CardinalsL14:05 PMNYY -156YankeesW1
4:05 PM · Yankee Stadium

STL's bats grade below average against Warren; NYY's grade below average against Pallante. That is a slight lean to STL.

DK ML · STL
+129 ← +123 open
DK ML · NYY
-156 ← -149 open
Total
o/u 8.5
Implied NYY (devig)
58.3%
Model vs market · disagree
Model leans the underdog STL (+129) against the market's NYY. When the model leans the away underdog: 49-50 in the ledger.
STL starter → NYY bats
Andre PallanteRHPsolid
faces the NYY lineup · 3R/6L · 6 plt-adv · model 5.8 IP + bullpen
wOBA
K − BB%
wOBA agn
.300
lg .316
K-BB%
10.4
lg 13.2
xERA
3.72
season 3.72
StandoutsRiceGarcía
▶NYY lineupprojectedwOBA .320
1Ben RiceL1B.384
2Jazz Chisholm Jr.L2B.301
3Luis García Jr.L1B.373
4Trent GrishamLCF.310
5José CaballeroRSS.304
6Paul GoldschmidtR1B.326
7Heliot RamosRLF.311
8Ryan McMahonL3B.285
9Austin WellsLC.251
NYY starter → STL bats
Will WarrenRHPbelow avg
faces the STL lineup · 6R/3L · 3 plt-adv · model 4.9 IP + bullpen
wOBA
K − BB%
wOBA agn
.328
lg .316
K-BB%
15.4
lg 13.2
xERA
4.46
season 4.14
StandoutsWalkerBurleson
▶STL lineupprojectedwOBA .311
1Iván HerreraRDH.328
2JJ WetherholtL2B.329
3Alec BurlesonL1B.358
4Jordan WalkerRRF.360
5Masyn WinnRSS.288
6Nathan ChurchLCF.283
7José FermínRLF.295
8Pedro PagésRC.254
9Blaze JordanR3B.270
White SoxL14:10 PMBOS -126Red SoxW6
4:10 PM · Fenway Park

CWS's bats grade below average against Gray; BOS's grade below average against Burke. That is a slight lean to CWS.

DK ML · CWS
+104 ← +108 open
DK ML · BOS
-126 ← -131 open
Total
o/u 8.5
Implied BOS (devig)
53.2%
Model vs market · disagree
Model leans the underdog CWS (+104) against the market's BOS. When the model leans the away underdog: 49-50 in the ledger.
CWS starter → BOS bats
Sean BurkeRHPsolid
faces the BOS lineup · 6R/3L · 3 plt-adv · model 6.0 IP + bullpen
wOBA
K − BB%
wOBA agn
.294
lg .316
K-BB%
20.4
lg 13.2
xERA
3.46
season 3.04
StandoutsContrerasRafaela
▶BOS lineupprojectedwOBA .324
1Wilyer AbreuLRF.335
2Jarren DuranLLF.268
3Ceddanne RafaelaRCF.350
4Willson ContrerasR1B.401
5Caleb DurbinR3B.319
6Masataka YoshidaLDH.328
7Andruw MonasterioRSS.336
8Connor WongRC.312
9Eli WhiteRRF.299
BOS starter → CWS bats
Sonny GrayRHPsolid
faces the CWS lineup · 3R/5L/1S · 6 plt-adv · model 5.9 IP + bullpen
wOBA
K − BB%
wOBA agn
.304
lg .316
K-BB%
14.8
lg 13.2
xERA
3.83
season 2.93
StandoutsMurakamiVargasAntonacci
▶CWS lineupprojectedwOBA .327
1Miguel VargasR3B.353
2Chase MeidrothR2B.330
3Colson MontgomeryLSS.321
4Sam AntonacciLLF.343
5Andrew BenintendiLDH.320
6Munetaka MurakamiL1B.389
7Tristan PetersLCF.323
8Braden MontgomerySRF.306
9Luisangel AcuñaRSS.249
MarlinsL14:15 PMATL -131BravesW6
4:15 PM · Truist Park

MIA's bats grade below average against Elder; ATL's grade below average against Pérez. That is a slight lean to ATL.

DK ML · MIA
+109 ← +108 open
DK ML · ATL
-131 ← -131 open
Total
o/u 8.5
Implied ATL (devig)
54.2%
Model vs market
Model agrees with the market: ATL favored. When the model leans the home favorite: 110-75 in the ledger.
MIA starter → ATL bats
Eury PérezRHPsolid
faces the ATL lineup · 4R/4L/1S · 5 plt-adv · model 6.1 IP + bullpen
wOBA
K − BB%
wOBA agn
.296
lg .316
K-BB%
17.0
lg 13.2
xERA
3.83
season 3.44
StandoutsOlsonBaldwinHarris
▶ATL lineupprojectedwOBA .328
1Matt OlsonL1B.378
2Ozzie AlbiesS2B.323
3Austin RileyR3B.293
4Mauricio DubónRLF.309
5Michael Harris IILCF.346
6Drake BaldwinLC.360
7Lane ThomasRCF.318
8Mike YastrzemskiLLF.309
9Ronald Acuña Jr.RRF.342
ATL starter → MIA bats
Bryce ElderRHPsolid
faces the MIA lineup · 4R/4L/1S · 5 plt-adv · model 5.3 IP + bullpen
wOBA
K − BB%
wOBA agn
.309
lg .316
K-BB%
12.1
lg 13.2
xERA
3.99
season 3.84
StandoutsLopezRuiz
▶MIA lineupprojectedwOBA .325
1Otto LopezRSS.360
2Xavier EdwardsS2B.336
3Jakob MarseeLCF.286
4Kyle StowersL1B.337
5Javier SanojaR3B.307
6Heriberto HernándezRLF.336
7Owen CaissieLRF.313
8Joe MackLC.322
9Esteury RuizRRF.371
PiratesL14:40 PMMIL -137BrewersW1
4:40 PM · American Family Field

PIT's bats grade below average against Harrison; MIL's grade below average against Skenes. That is a slight lean to MIL.

DK ML · PIT
+114 ← +102 open
DK ML · MIL
-137 ← -123 open
Total
o/u 7
Implied MIL (devig)
55.3%
Model vs market
Model agrees with the market: MIL favored. When the model leans the home favorite: 110-75 in the ledger.
PIT starter → MIL bats
Paul SkenesRHPsolid
faces the MIL lineup · 4R/5L · 5 plt-adv · model 5.5 IP + bullpen
wOBA
K − BB%
wOBA agn
.298
lg .316
K-BB%
24.2
lg 13.2
xERA
2.93
season 3.90
StandoutsBauersVaughnTurang
▶MIL lineupprojectedwOBA .331
1Brice TurangL2B.356
2William ContrerasRC.317
3Jake BauersL1B.379
4Garrett MitchellLCF.342
5Jackson ChourioRLF.348
6Christian YelichLDH.303
7Joey OrtizRSS.295
8David HamiltonL3B.291
9Andrew VaughnR1B.380
MIL starter → PIT bats
Kyle HarrisonLHPelite
faces the PIT lineup · 5R/2L/2S · 7 plt-adv · model 4.8 IP + bullpen
wOBA
K − BB%
wOBA agn
.291
lg .316
K-BB%
23.7
lg 13.2
xERA
3.17
season 3.01
StandoutsValdezReynoldsHorwitz
▶PIT lineupprojectedwOBA .332
1Bryan ReynoldsSLF.363
2Brandon LoweL2B.347
3Nick GonzalesR3B.337
4Jake MangumSCF.326
5Spencer HorwitzL1B.360
6Marcell OzunaRDH.275
7Jared TrioloRSS.288
8Henry DavisRC.268
9Esmerlyn ValdezRRF.409
TwinsL34:40 PMKC -123RoyalsW1
4:40 PM · Kauffman Stadium

MIN's bats grade above average against Cameron; KC's grade above average against Kremer. That is a slight lean to KC.

DK ML · MIN
+102 ← -108 open
DK ML · KC
-123 ← -112 open
Total
o/u 9
Implied KC (devig)
52.7%
Model vs market
Model agrees with the market: KC favored. When the model leans the home favorite: 110-75 in the ledger.
MIN starter → KC bats
Dean KremerRHPbelow avg
faces the KC lineup · 4R/4L/1S · 5 plt-adv · model 5.1 IP + bullpen
wOBA
K − BB%
wOBA agn
.357
lg .316
K-BB%
17.6
lg 13.2
xERA
4.94
season 6.50
StandoutsWitt
▶KC lineupprojectedwOBA .313
1Salvador PerezRDH.277
2Carter JensenLC.315
3Bobby Witt Jr.RSS.350
4Jac CaglianoneLRF.332
5Isaac CollinsSLF.320
6Michael MasseyL2B.309
7Nick LoftinR3B.324
8Kyle IsbelLCF.293
9Starling MarteRRF.282
KC starter → MIN bats
Noah CameronLHPbelow avg
faces the MIN lineup · 4R/2L/3S · 7 plt-adv · model 5.6 IP + bullpen
wOBA
K − BB%
wOBA agn
.320
lg .316
K-BB%
13.6
lg 13.2
xERA
4.65
season 4.59
StandoutsJeffersLarnach
▶MIN lineupprojectedwOBA .327
1Josh BellSDH.316
2Brooks LeeS3B.314
3Luke KeaschallR2B.322
4Kody ClemensL1B.328
5Trevor LarnachLLF.364
6Royce LewisR3B.316
7Austin MartinRRF.307
8Victor CaratiniSC.293
9Ryan JeffersRC.387
TigersW46:40 PMSEA -155MarinersL1
6:40 PM · T-Mobile Park

DET's bats grade below average against Woo; SEA's grade about average against Anderson. That is a slight lean to SEA.

DK ML · DET
+128 ← +123 open
DK ML · SEA
-155 ← -149 open
Total
o/u 8
Implied SEA (devig)
58.1%
Model vs market
Model agrees with the market: SEA favored. When the model leans the home favorite: 110-75 in the ledger.
DET starter → SEA bats
Drew AndersonRHPbelow avgopener · bullpen
faces the SEA lineup · 4R/4L/1S · 5 plt-adv · model 1.3 IP + bullpen
wOBA
K − BB%
wOBA agn
.318
lg .316
K-BB%
19.2
lg 13.2
xERA
3.38
season 4.24
StandoutsArozarenaCanzone
▶SEA lineupprojectedwOBA .314
1Taylor WardRLF.333
2Josh NaylorL1B.304
3Cole YoungL2B.327
4Randy ArozarenaRLF.366
5Julio RodríguezRCF.320
6Cal RaleighSC.262
7Dominic CanzoneLDH.362
8Colt EmersonLSS.266
9Victor RoblesRRF.254
SEA starter → DET bats
Bryan WooRHPsolid
faces the DET lineup · 4R/5L · 5 plt-adv · model 5.6 IP + bullpen
wOBA
K − BB%
wOBA agn
.294
lg .316
K-BB%
19.3
lg 13.2
xERA
3.54
season 4.56
StandoutsDinglerMcGonigleGreene
▶DET lineupprojectedwOBA .326
1Kevin McGonigleLSS.364
2Riley GreeneLLF.360
3Spencer TorkelsonR1B.321
4Dillon DinglerRC.367
5Colt KeithL3B.325
6Zach McKinstryL2B.278
7Gleyber TorresR2B.355
8Hao-Yu LeeR2B.312
9James OutmanLCF.241
PadresW16:40 PMSD -125D-backsL1
6:40 PM · Chase Field

SD's bats grade about average against Bratt; AZ's grade well below average against Mize. That is a strong lean to SD.

DK ML · SD
-125 ← -108 open
DK ML · AZ
+104 ← -112 open
Total
o/u 9
Implied AZ (devig)
46.9%
Model vs market
Model agrees with the market: SD favored. When the model leans the away favorite: 61-41 in the ledger.
SD starter → AZ bats
Casey MizeRHPelite
faces the AZ lineup · 3R/3L/3S · 6 plt-adv · model 5.6 IP + bullpen
wOBA
K − BB%
wOBA agn
.273
lg .316
K-BB%
19.3
lg 13.2
xERA
3.07
season 2.70
StandoutsCarroll
▶AZ lineupprojectedwOBA .315
1Ketel MarteS2B.321
2Corbin CarrollLRF.347
3Geraldo PerdomoSSS.330
4Nolan ArenadoR3B.329
5Ildemaro VargasS1B.314
6Adrian Del CastilloLDH.254
7Lars NootbaarLLF.309
8Ryan WaldschmidtRCF.320
9Tim TawaRLF.283
AZ starter → SD bats
Mitch BrattLHPbelow avg
faces the SD lineup · 5R/3L/1S · 6 plt-adv · model 4.1 IP + bullpen
wOBA
K − BB%
wOBA agn
.356
lg .316
K-BB%
-3.1
lg 13.2
xERA
4.90
season 5.23
StandoutsFrance
▶SD lineupprojectedwOBA .312
1Fernando Tatis Jr.RRF.328
2Manny MachadoR3B.311
3Jackson MerrillLCF.301
4Xander BogaertsRSS.293
5Gavin SheetsL1B.315
6Ty FranceR1B.370
7Luis RengifoS3B.286
8Jake CronenworthL2B.275
9Freddy FerminRC.262
RecordModel full 227-177 (0.562) · Model vs mkt z +0.82 (-2.44u)full ledger →by team →
MLB matchup leans — Statcast wOBA · built 3:47 AM · 2026-08-05 · first pitch times Pacific